November 16, 2024 | Read Online

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Good morning. Nations around the world are bracing for Trump's presidency. Alliances are being reshaped, militaries are redrawing plans, and governments are preparing to shell out more for defense spending.

We're covering all of this in today's edition of Geopolitics 101.

Mentioned in this edition: Benjamin Netanyahu, Georgia Meloni, Elon Musk, Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen, Shigeru Ishiba, Javier Milei, Ukrainian nukes, the Abu Ghraib prison, the West Bank, and more.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

🇮🇱 Israel is preparing a ceasefire in Lebanon as a welcome present for Trump. One of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's closest aides told President-elect Donald Trump that his country was moving quickly to find a way to stop the fighting in Israel's north and Lebanon's south. Another official said that "an understanding" would come about by January.

🇮🇹 Elon Musk called out Italian judges for blocking immigration policy. Musk, who is friends with Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, criticized Italy's judges for being an "unelected autocracy" after they said Italy could not deport Egyptians home, as it was "unsafe." This prompted the president to push back against Musk, saying Italy "knows how to take care of itself."

🇨🇳 Congress considers dramatically altering US-Chinese trade relations. Two similar bills — one introduced by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) — would revoke China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status. It would also hike tariffs on Chinese goods and give the president the power to block specific Chinese imports.

🇺🇦 Ukraine could have a nuke in six months. A briefing prepared by a think-tank influential with Ukraine's government argued that, if the West cut support to Kyiv, they could develop a small nuke — about 1/10th of the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima — using nuclear material from fuel rods taken from Ukraine's power plants.

🇪🇺 EUROPE

Populist-right politician Geert Wilders, leader of the largest party in The Netherlands, demanded "rigorous measures" after a spate of anti-Semitic incidents.
French prosecutors have asked a judge to sentence populist-right leader Marine Le Pen to jail and ban her from running for office for five years for embezzlement.
The EU is fining Meta 800 million euros for advertising practices.

🌏 ASIA-PACIFIC

China's government is passing measures to prepare itself for a potential trade war with the upcoming Trump administration.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba survived a no-confidence vote and will run the country without a parliamentary majority.

Israel eyes more territory with Trump in office

Israeli leadership likely breathed a sigh of relief in the wake of Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in last week's presidential election. Although Harris was vague on her foreign policy plans, her close aides were critical of Israel, and she likely would have been less supportive of the country than President Biden…

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Why America's Asian allies might want to arm up

President-elect Donald Trump has been firm on his desire to shift America's focus away from Europe and toward Asia.

This desire has stemmed primarily from two places: Trump's perception that China is a major threat to the United States and his frustration over European allies refusing to pay their fair share on defense…

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